Polling Data

Economic Shocks And Attitudes Toward Redistribution

In the wake of the financial crisis that began in 2007, as well as the subsequent recession, there has been a great deal of attention paid to income inequality. Specifically, there was a pervasive argument among many Americans that the discrepancies in income between the top and bottom are too large, and that the fruits of economic growth are predominantly going to the highest earners (the so-called “one percent”).

Among those who believe that income inequality is too high, the solutions might include policies such as more progressive taxation, stronger regulation, and more generous policies to help lower income families. That is, they might generally support some increased role for government in addressing this issue. Insofar as individuals’ attitudes tend to respond to changes in their own circumstances (e.g., Owens and Pedulla 2013), as well as to overall economic conditions, one would possibly expect an increase in support for government efforts to reduce inequality during and after the financial crisis.

We might take a look at this proposition using a General Social Survey (GSS) question asking respondents to characterize their support (on a scale of 1-7) for the statement that the government should reduce income differences between the rich and poor. The graph below presents the average value of this scale between 1986 and 2014. Note that higher values in the graph represent greater support for government action.

On Focus Groups, Elections, and Predictions

Focus groups, a method in which small groups of subjects are questioned by researchers, are widely used in politics, marketing, and other areas. In education policy, focus groups, particularly those comprised of teachers or administrators, are often used to design or shape policy. And, of course, during national election cycles, they are particularly widespread, and there are even television networks that broadcast focus groups as a way to gauge the public’s reaction to debates or other events.

There are good reasons for using focus groups. Analyzing surveys can provide information regarding declaratory behaviors and issues’ rankings at a given point in time, and correlations between these declarations and certain demographic and social variables of interest. Focus groups, on the other hand, can help map out the issues important to voters (which can inform survey question design), as well investigate what reactions certain presentations (verbal or symbolic) evoke (which can, for example, help frame messages in political or informational campaigns).

Both polling/surveys and focus groups provide insights that the other method alone could not. Neither of them, however, can answer questions about why certain patterns occur or how likely they are to occur in the future. That said, having heard some of the commentary about focus groups, and particularly having seen them being broadcast live and discussed on cable news stations, I feel strongly compelled to comment, as I do whenever data are used improperly or methodologies are misinterpreted.

On Education Polls And Confirmation Bias

Our guest author today is Morgan Polikoff, Assistant Professor in the Rossier School of Education at the University of Southern California. 

A few weeks back, education policy wonks were hit with a set of opinion polls about education policy. The two most divergent of these polls were the Phi Delta Kappan/Gallup poll and the Associated Press/NORC poll.

This week a California poll conducted by Policy Analysis for California Education (PACE) and the USC Rossier School of Education (where I am an assistant professor) was released. The PACE/USC Rossier poll addresses many of the same issues as those from the PDK and AP, and I believe the three polls together can provide some valuable lessons about the education reform debate, the interpretation of poll results, and the state of popular opinion about key policy issues.

In general, the results as a whole indicate that parents and the public hold rather nuanced views on testing and evaluation.

Be Careful What You Think The Public Thinks About Tenure

Monmouth University polling director Patrick Murray offered this response to my criticism of how he described tenure in a recent poll of New Jersey public opinion (see my brief reply and Bruce Baker's as well).

I’m not particularly keen on arguing about the wording of poll questions. As I stated in my original post, wordings are never perfect, and one must always take this into account when trying to interpret polling results. I took issue with Monmouth’s phrasing because it is demonstrably inaccurate, nothing more.

But I do want to quickly add that, as is often the case, responses to poll questions about tenure are very sensitive to the nature of the description offered. A 2009 PDK/Gallup poll provides an illustration.